In retrospect, we should all have predicted Scarlets’ victory over Leinster. The neighbours can never be relied upon when needed. We might have had a chance even with the defeat in Johannesburg and the Cardiff win, but with Scarlets now only two points from guaranteeing Connacht’s status as a bottom half team, the chances of salvaging something from this quite odd season look vanishingly slim.
The annoying thing is that none of the succession of results Connacht need to progress is individually that unlikely, in fact in the vast majority of cases, the likely punters and pundits predictions will do us nicely; it’s just that there are so damn many of them that at least one of them is bound to go awry. And with barely a point to spare, a stray bonus point either way could bury us even if the accumulator comes in.
For the record, in addition to picking up ten points from the last two weekends (technically nine might do, but we’d need an even bigger miracle), we need the following results to progress:
Scarlets and Benetton to lose both their matches. Glasgow’s trip to Treviso is the main danger there. In addition Scarlets can only be allowed to pick up one bonus point in total. With two, they’d be ahead of us on games won.
Ospreys and Ulster to lose at least one each. With all those games away, that shouldn’t be too unlikely. They also need to do anything unlikely bonus point wise. Seven points would do either of them.
Lions not to join us on a maximum ten points. With Scarlets and Ospreys at home this is a real risk.
And we need Edinburgh to get less than six – so realistically we need a 5-0 league point result when they come to the Sportsground.
At this point, I’d take still being in the hunt by kick-off in that match, which requires Benetton to lose at home to Glasgow just before.
In the meantime, if Connacht want to keep the door ajar to the Champions Cup, Edinburgh need to not win the Challenge Cup, so a win for Bath in the Hive would help on that front. If Edinburgh win that trophy, Connacht will need a few more miracles as the only way in would then be to win the URC.
And let’s not be silly … I’m already scouting our Challenge Cup opponents for next season.