Latest prediction: Pau, unless I’m an idiot and got it all wrong!
Live Update: Bayonne looking good against Exeter. The bonus point try means they technically only need a draw to get ahead of Connacht in the seedings and send us to Pau. Dragons trailing Sharks and not looking anywhere near likely to get the bonus point win they need to affect matters.
Surprise two late tries from Sale put them ahead of Connacht in the seedings. If Bayonne beat Exeter, we will play Pau (or Dragons if they give Sharks a thumping). Otherwise we go to Swansea.
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OK, nearly there. We can’t get into the Champions Cup now obviously.
I suppose for most people we’d like to avoid having to go to Johannesburg, so best if Lions beat Ospreys well and get them out of contention.
We’d probably also like to avoid Edinburgh, so best if either Sale get at least a bonus point or Bayonne win. But if Dragons beat Sharks, Edinburgh are out of the picture anyway.
So first up, a big Lions win and something for Sale.
I’m still sticking with Montpellier as my prediction, but there are many variables.