Round 1 really couldn’t have gone much better with the completion of the Pinky Slam. All desired results went the right way. Nit-pickers might say we could have done without Castres’ late bonus-point securing try but let’s not be greedy.
Before all hell broke loose later in the week, we were looking good for all the other games in Round 2 to go our way too. A fivefold accumulator on Castres, Wasps, Stade Francais, Scarlets and Cardiff all losing was coming in at odds-on. The only fly in the ointment was that Connacht themselves were 8-1 to pull off the win at Welford.
With the postponement of a raft of games and three 28-0 There-Is-No-Scope-For-Postponement-And-This-Is-Definitely-Not-A-Sanction results confusingly left to stand, the landscape is a bit different now, but remember that last season when it all went pear-shaped, home advantage was given to teams that won their games on the field of play, so the prospect of beating Leicester away is even more inviting, and with a few players back for us and their captain Christmas shopping in another team’s club shop, that may also have gotten slightly less remote.
Of the remaining fixtures, wins for Munster and Harlequins would be preferable, but seem fairly inevitable anyway. The game of the weekend is probably, quite unexpectedly, at lunchtime Sunday, so enjoy the limelight, play what’s in front of you, and let the bizarre inner workings of the EPCR play out in Neuchatel or Lausanne or wherever their current covenstead is located.
Or course this may all have changed by the time you read this …
Category: Uncategorized
One often wonders when reading rugby journalism if everyone’s main source of information is each others’ articles. The latest factoid that seems to be doing the rounds is is that the four match pool format of the Champions Cup means there is no margin for error and every game is a must-win.
Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact one of the motivations for introducing the new format was to reduce the number of teams going into the last round with no chance of progression. So they made it as easy as possible, with 16 teams from 24 qualifying, and thus creating a whole new problem of loads of teams going into the last round already qualified.
Along with the fact that eight out of twelve teams progress, we have the added feature of the higher seeded teams never playing each other, so for the weaker six teams in each pool, all their games will be against teams from the stronger half, meaning that if all games were to go with seeding, six teams would have four wins each and the other six would have none, and two teams would advance to the last sixteen despite perhaps only having a bonus point or two to show for their endeavours. While this is unlikely to happen, I think it’s safe enough bet that at least one of the six teams that get the consolation prize of a Challenge Cup spot for finishing 9th-11th will do so having shipped four defeats.
But to get to the last sixteen of the main event, it’s reasonably likely that one win might do it, especially if it is accompanied by a bonus point here and there.
Of course the easiest way for Connacht to qualify would be to win all of our games, a feat that is eminently achievable, let’s not be defeatist, but just in case it goes awry, there are some results we need from some friendly allies to help us along.
Ultimately, to get through, a team has to get ahead of four others, and having seen the opening rounds of the various leagues, the obvious candidates would have been Cardiff, Scarlets, Wasps and Castres. As it happens, all of these teams’ chances are now affected one way or the other by the recent South African misadventure. While ideally we would not necessarily want to benefit from the misfortune of others (in the case of Scarlets’ forfeit and Cardiff’s uphill battle against Toulouse) we certainly wouldn’t want to suffer as a result, which may be the case if Munster were to drop points against Wasps or Castres, so let’s hope the neighbours pull off the coup. It’ll be one to look forward to while warming up after our game on Sunday.
Other than those four, Stade Francais are the other team that might not rack up the points, especially if Connacht do their own part of the task.
So by and large, throughout the pool stage, it is preferable for Connacht if Cardiff, Scarlets, Castres, Wasps and Paris lose, which by extension means that Munster, Toulouse, Bristol and Harlequins have our permission to win all around them, though this advice may change later on if we start racking up the points and fancy a higher seeding.
So for this weekend, Scarlets unluckily have already shipped a loss and Cardiff will likely struggle, Munster have a very good shot and the bookies have installed Harlequins as one-point favourites away to Castres, so that particular clean-sweep of favourable results is achievable.
Which all leaves Leicester’s trip to Bordeaux. Instinct might say you want a Bordeaux win, and that might have been the desired result under the old system, where an early defeat might demotivate a team, but this time it’s different. If Leicester win at the Chaban-Delmas, then should they beat Connacht at Welford the following week, they would be sitting pretty and less in need of points at the Sportsground in Round 3, meanwhile Bordeaux would travel to Parc y Scarlets with a greater need. Conversely a first defeat of the season for the Tigers would leave them hungry to make amends, so all-in-all a Leicester win is probably better.
But of course, the most important result is the one at the Sportsground. I started out by dismissing the talk of must-win games, but since this is Connacht’s most winnable game, they really must win it.
Pool B fixtures, with desired winner in bold:
Sat 13:00 Cardiff v Toulouse (Cardiff travel to Quins in Round 2)
Sat 15:15 Bordeaux v Leicester (Bordeaux go to Parc y Scarlets)
Sun 13:00 Connacht v Stade Francais (Paris entertain Bristol next)
Sun 15:15 Wasps v Munster (Wasps are away to Toulouse next week)
Sun 17:30 Castres v Harlequins (Castres visit Munster also)
Fresh on the heels of Connacht’s season coming to an end, everyone else (bar Benetton) had theirs prematurely truncated as well, with a selection of dead rubbers now on offer for the weekend. Only the Sharks can upset the table order by thrashing the Bulls at home.
With only academic interest in the Rainbow Cup for Connacht fans, attention turns to England and France, where our potential opponents for next season’s Champions Cup are being decided.
EPCR have yet to announce the format, but they have confirmed that 24 teams will participate and the assumption seems to be that the ostensibly temporary format adopted for this season will persist. If all the same rules stay in place, Connacht, as a Tier 2 side, i.e. one that finished third or fourth, will play one of the Tier 3 sides from each of England and France.
For the Premiership, that translates to the team in fifth, certain to be Northampton, and sixth, which in theory could be Bath, but will almost certainly be the winner of the final day clash between Wasps and Leicester. So no-one Connacht haven’t played recently, but there’s a chance that we might get to witness a trip to Welford Road in person. The bookies have Wasps as 3 point favourites so that one might be worth a watch at 3pm on Saturday.
Across La Manche, after last weekends end-of-regular-season drama that saw Toulon condemned to the Challenge Cup, the Barrages provide the weekend drama, with Connacht due to face one or other of the losing sides. For a while it looked like a trip to Castres could be a possibility after their comeback bonus-point win against Toulon, but three second half penalties from Stade Francais in the Basque Country saw Castres drop to seventh, putting them in the path of either Leinster or Munster.
As it stands the Barrages will see Racing at home to Stade in the Friday night derby, while Clermont, who beat La Rochelle while allowing them to hold on to the losing bonus they needed for second place, make the trip to Bordeaux the following night. Both games are live on Freesports, as Premier Sports have recently acquired the UK and Ireland rights to the Top 14 after a long absence from our screens.
Racing are firm favourites over their rivals, and the Stade Jean Bouin would certainly be my preferred destination if we are Paris bound, despite our near heroics in La Defense on All-Ireland Sunday last December.
On Saturday, Bordeaux are five point favourites to prevail at home to Clermont. While the intrepid adventurers amongst us will fancy the trip to the Auvergne, our proven ability to win in the faded splendour of the Stade Chaban-Delmas might have some of us shouting for the Yellow Army. Neither will be easy opponents though, so for a chance to progress, we’ll probably be hoping for the Parisian ball to come out of the hat when the time comes.
Of course, this all comes with the caveat that the competition might follow a new format, but assuming what I have assumed, a brief summary of our potential opponents is:
Northampton or the winner of Wasps v Leicester
and
One of the losers of Racing v Stade Francais or Bordeaux v Clermont
Enjoy the drama …
After an only mildly mind-numbing Challenge Cup draw (we don’t really need a highlights reel to get us geed up EPCR, you’re in an empty hotel, just pick a ball), Connacht end up away to Leicester, with a home quarter-final against Ospreys or Newcastle for the winner.
After trip after fruitless trip to Kingsholm, two visits to the AJ Bell in the same season and many fans in danger of being awarded the Freedom of Toulouse for services to bar sales, we finally get to go somewhere new, and iconic. Except we can’t.
Of course, the Tigers faithful most likely won’t be about either and Connacht have a great record in empty away grounds, so the home QF isn’t inconceivable.
Leicester are still in the hunt for a Premiership semi-final and have a key game against the team above them and potential quarter-final opponents Falcons the previous week, so it remains to be seen what kind of team they decide to field. The potential TV coverage is also completely up in the air. With eight Champions Cup knockout games coupled with Harlequins v Ulster and Montpellier hosting Glasgow, Connacht’s game mightn’t make the cut, so we could be hoping for an EPCR website live stream if anything. Fingers crossed.
Categories
Over? It’s only just begun …
It seems that this season’s Pro 14 challenge has finally come to an end. Though of course we can’t rule out a last minute reversion to a full league format if the Rainbow Cup doesn’t happen, that would be highly unlikely at this stage. If you ignore the elephant sized asterisk in the room, it’s Connacht’s second best season ever (assuming they hold off Scarlets for second). In any case, we have three new competitions to look forward to.
Qualification for next season’s Champions Cup is assured. At worst Connacht will be ranked fifth overall, meaning they avoid being in Pot 4 in the draw and can potentially be drawn with one of the Welsh teams or a mid-table English or French club. If they hold off Scarlets, which seems likely, they have a one in three chance of getting into Pot 2 in the draw and avoiding some of the higher ranked sides.
The fate of the aforementioned Rainbow Cup is still to be decided, the current assumption being that it will take place entirely in Europe, with the South African sides hanging around to play the Lions in a home “tour”. If the South African sides don’t travel at all however, the whole thing will seem like a rather anticlimactic mini-rerun of the league we’re just wrapping up.
But before all that, Connacht are an unlikely qualifier for this season’s Challenge Cup, despite only actually picking up a single point in the two European games we got to play.
There are sixteen names in the hat. The only rules are that teams from the same league can’t be drawn together and that teams that played and won both of their games (London Irish, Leicester and Ospreys) have to have a home game, otherwise it’s decided by lot. As it happens, there are eight Pro 14 teams, therefore presumably they will put them all in one pot and the six English and two French in the other, with another draw for home advantage where necessary (and just draw again if Ospreys get Irish or Leicester), but EPCR will no doubt find a way to make it way more complicated. In any case, the teams Connacht can get (all equally probable) are:
London Irish
Leicester
Newcastle
Northampton
Bath
Harlequins
Montpellier
Agen
Agen are obviously the easiest option, having endured a winless season and only qualifying by virtue of the bonus point win they got awarded for a walkover against Benetton, while Pau, who actually won a game, miss out. Irish and Leicester are tough prospects at least on paper as the game would be guaranteed to be away, but with Connacht’s pandemic away form, that might not matter as much as usual. Montpellier are the other side that stands out, but they’re also having a poor run of form and might be more focused on climbing up from the lower reaches of the Top 14 table.
All in all it seems an eminently winnable competition and, even more so than in a normal season, it might all come down to who cares most.
The draw is live on Tuesday at high noon on https://www.epcrugby.com/
Categories
It’s raining bonus points
Having seen how the table looks after a few free bonus-point wins were handed out, I’ve officially changed my position on Racing 92. Even with fifteen points under their belt coming to the Sportsground, they wouldn’t be comfortable with Toulouse and Lyon almost certainly ahead of them and probably a few others, so any advantage to them winning is minimal. Better if Harlequins win and set up the potential last day showdown, where Connacht overhaul them with a glorious victory in front of a full house of eighty fans. Or even better if they lose twice and give up! Bookies are giving Quins a decent chance on Sunday so I’ll shout for them:
Updated winners (in bold):
Gloucester v Ulster
Clermont v Munster
Harlequins v Racing 92
Categories
Round 2 Armchair Guide
Round One all went to plan with the obvious exception, but the raft of match cancellations and the uncertainty of how they will be decided adds an extra level of mystery to what is going on in Round 2 (get well soon to all the players and staff affected).
With one loss under our belt, but with a welcome bonus point, the ideal scenario is to have as few teams as possible on three wins, thus making it likely that Connacht would qualify if they win their remaining games and even open up the possibility that on a very miraculous day, they could pox into the quarter-finals with only two wins.
Racing look likely candidates for a couple of wins against Quins, and that may not be a bad thing, as it could mean that they are safely qualified before the trip to the Sportsground, and with two-legged quarter-finals, the incentive to finish higher up the table is reduced and so consequently might be their motivation. Try bonus points would help on that front. We got them off to a good start by skillfully conceding four tries in Paris.
So that’s one team on three wins at least. After that, Clermont look odds on to repeat their win over Bristol on the last weekend and Munster may well do the same away to Quins (the latter being severely demotivated by a double dose of Racing and thinking ahead to the derby against Wasps the following week), thus a divvying up up the spoils in the two Munster v Clermont games would be the worst outcome as it would leave them both on three wins, so it is better all round if the same team wins both games. Clermont seem more likely to do the double you would think. On the other hand, Thomond, while not the fortress of old, is still a God-awful place to go if it’s points you’re after. I’m plumping for Munster on the grounds that if they can win in the Michelin, they can finish the job in Limerick. If they lose, I’ll just switch jerseys next round.
The exact same scenario would have applied to the Exeter/Toulouse fixtures. Both look likely winners in Round 4 so we want both results to go the same way, so I would have preferred an Exeter away win. Word around the campfire though is that Toulouse will be awarded the game, since it was Exeter who caused the cancellation. In that case just shout for Toulouse in Round 3.
The situation with Glasgow v Lyon is less clear cut. That could be called a draw since it’s neither team’s doing. I’d have liked a Glasgow win there. They don’t look like QF contenders and any points Lyon drop is a good thing looking at their fixture list.
Gloucester and Ulster are probably best sharing the points, just in case one of them pulls an upset in Round 4, so shout for the home team in each case.
With those results, Toulouse and Munster (or Clermont) would end up with four wins, Racing with three, leaving the outside chance of someone pipping Lyon to fourth spot. Looking at Bordeaux’s fixture list, they could very well end up top of the heap on the other side, which wouldn’t be a bad outcome to the pool stage adventures.
In all cases, the less bonus points, the better, except for Racing, who we’d like to get comfortable, and of course Connacht, for whom a try bonus against Bristol would really really help, but a win is of course essential …
Desired results (in bold):
Gloucester v Ulster
Clermont v Munster
Harlequins v Racing 92 (TBP)
Categories
Who to shout for in Round 1
The new format makes it even harder to know who to shout for in the other games.
Since the teams are now split into two pools with four qualifiers from each, with no best runners-up, the results in the other Pool are of supreme indifference to us (except from the point of view of potential Quarter Final opponents), so Connacht fans can just sit back and enjoy those.
As for Connacht’s pool, it’s a bit early to say in most cases. As mentioned before, sharing the points about is key to having a chance of coming through the pack. Ideally you want three teams to win all around them while the points in the other games are shared, giving a shot at fourth spot and perhaps a meeting with Leinster. My previous suggestion that Glasgow or Gloucester could be dark horses given their pairing with Lyon now looks very wide of the mark given their starts to their respective domestic seasons.
One result that would definitely help would be for Clermont to win away to Bristol. If Connacht could then beat Bristol the following weekend (a basic requirement for us to have any chance), Pat Lam’s side might consider themselves effectively out of contention, which could only help our prospects in Ashton Gate.
After that, it’s probably best if Exeter and Toulouse keep winning, as they’ll probably be in the top 3 and if the rest go with the home team, to keep the points spread thinner.
So the preferred winners (in bold) are (without much conviction):
Ulster v Toulouse
Bristol Bears v ASM Clermont Auvergne
Lyon v Gloucester
Exeter Chiefs v Glasgow Warriors
Munster v Harlequins
Categories
Racing 92 and Bristol
Connacht’s Champions Cup luck hasn’t improved any since our “promotion” to Tier 3 in the draw.
First of all, Racing rather unhelpfully lost the Champions Cup final, thus failing to get bumped up to Tier 1 and in the process bump serial Euro-underachievers Lyon into our path, and then, in a draw process that had to be held in secret, lest the virus live-stream itself into our bubble, we landed with probably the tougher option in each of the two coin-tosses.
Bath would have been marginally preferable to their neighbours, and Toulon would certainly have provided more beatable opposition than the aforementioned Parisians, but we are where we are.
The new format being what it is, we should also consider who our opponents’ opponents are, since they will not face each other. Racing take on Harlequins, whereas Bristol play Clermont.
It seems a daunting task but the order of the fixtures could play a key role. If for example Bristol were to host Connacht in the last game, having lost both Clermont games and the away game in Galway, they could be picked off. Of course we’d have to deal with Racing in the Sportsground as well (I’m more or less writing off the trip to La Defense, but you’d never know).
Below are the fantasy results that get us to the quarter finals. I may be being very harsh on Harlequins, but they have a tough draw, so I figure they lose all their games. Essentially if they and Bristol get whitewashed, and everything else goes to the home team, Connacht squeak through …
| Team | Opponents | Wins |
| Exeter | Glasgow Toulouse | 2 |
| Lyon | Glasgow Gloucester | 2 |
| Ulster | Toulouse Gloucester | 2 |
| Bristol | Clermont Connacht | 0 |
| Munster | Clermont Harlequins | 3 |
| Racing | Connacht Harlequins | 3 |
| Clermont | Bristol Munster | 3 |
| Connacht | Racing Bristol | 3 |
| Harlequins | Munster Racing | 0 |
| Glasgow | Lyon Exeter | 2 |
| Gloucester | Lyon Ulster | 2 |
| Toulouse | Exeter Ulster | 2 |
Glasgow or Gloucester could be the surprise package. In the scenario above, I gave Lyon two home wins, but if they repeat their typical European performances of late, one of them could easily pull off the coveted away win that get them into the top 4. In that scenario, Exeter’s trip to Scotstoun becomes crucial, with the winner putting themselves in a QF spot. Of course if Lyon were to suddenly start performing in Europe as they do domestically, they have the kind of draw that could see them through.
There are so many possible scenarios that the best approach might be to just enjoy the rugby and not even look at the table until after Round 3 in January.
So yesterday, I forgot the details of Pro 14’s European qualification rules. As you may (almost certainly not) remember from previous seasons, qualification is based on your position within your conference, but once you’ve qualified, that no longer matters, and your seeding in the draw is based on your total points, regardless of which conference you’re in. The logic presumably is that consistency would lead to predictability, thence to boredom, and therein madness lies.
If like me, you feel silly for not knowing that eminently sensible arrangement, console yourself that Pro14 missed it themselves, and had to update their press release. This was all too late for Gerry Thornley, who didn’t get the news before his print deadline, so I don’t feel so bad.
The upshot of it all is that Connacht have now leapfrogged Glasgow, having had one point more than them after round 13, and are now the sixth-ranked team in the Pro14, and thus in Tier 3 for the draw. Cue wild celebration, a heroic victory, actually not quite.
You see the problem (as Gerry also alludes to) is that the Tier 1 teams that Connacht would have faced as a Tier 4 side, are less intimidating in European terms than the Tier 2 sides we now have to deal with. A choice of Lyon or Bordeaux has now become a toss-up between Toulon and Racing. The trade-off is that we avoid the English finalists, but the likely losing semi-finalists (Wasps/Bristol) will be no pushover.
So I’ll have a go at faking the draw again and see if our promotion has helped us (I’ll just stick in the number of wins as predicting bonus points is a bit silly):
| Tier | Team | Opponents | Wins |
| 1 | Leinster | Gloucester Toulouse | 4 |
| 1 | Sale | Dragons Toulouse | 3 |
| 1 | Lyon | Dragons Gloucester | 1 |
| 2 | Ulster | Northampton La Rochelle | 2 |
| 2 | Bristol | Connacht La Rochelle | 2 |
| 2 | Racing | Northampton Connacht | 3 |
| 3 | Connacht | Bristol Racing | 2 |
| 3 | Northampton | Racing Ulster | 1 |
| 3 | La Rochelle | Ulster Bristol | 2 |
| 4 | Dragons | Sale Lyon | 1 |
| 4 | Gloucester | Leinster Lyon | 2 |
| 4 | Toulouse | Leinster Sale | 1 |
I gave us home wins over Racing and Bristol and I still could only get us into a five-way scrap for the last slice of pudding.
So this has definitely gotten harder.
There is one hope. If a French team win the Champions Cup, they automatically go into Tier 1, which would mean second-placed Lyon drop to Tier 2, which would then give Connacht a 50/50 shot at playing them home and away, which would be far preferable to Racing or Toulon.
So sorry Leinster, I’m afraid the unbeaten season will have to come a cropper at the final hurdle 🙂
If I’ve made any other errors, there’s a comment option (that I think works).