The Challenge Cup draw procedure has been confirmed by EPCR with Connacht’s opponents to be confirmed on Tuesday July 1st.
It’s a little less complicated than last season, when Connacht were somewhat arbitrarily grouped with the English teams. The only slight quirk is that the Lions are grouped with the invitational teams. This is presumably to keep Lions and Cheetahs apart, although preventing the Lions from playing Black Lion feels a little like feline apartheid.
The executive summary is that Connacht will be in a pool with:
Two French teams (from Montpellier, Racing 92, Lyon, Stade Francais, Perpignan, Montauban)
One Welsh team (Cardiff, Ospreys or Dragons)
One South African or Georgian (Lions, Cheetahs or Black Lion)
One English or Italian (Exeter, Newcastle, Zebre or Benetton)
The only team we can’t get is Ulster and if we get Lions we can’t get Zebre or Benetton as that would mean four URC teams in the pool so if we get Lions we will have an English team.
We have a one in three chance of playing most teams and one in four of playing the English or Italians, so it’s pretty much wide open.
Which teams we play home or away and which team we don’t play at all will be determined by the mysterious algorithm, but we can make a few assumptions based on previous years:
One pool will have only two URC teams and those two teams won’t play each other, so we have a one in three chance of not playing another URC team. One assumes most of us would prefer to avoid the teams from our own league just for variety. The other two pools will have three URC teams so each of them will have to play at least one other and one will have to play two. Since Lions are grouped with the invitational teams, they will have two other URC teams in their pool and it’s a fair bet that they will have to play them both, which reduces Connacht’s chances of playing two URC teams. Also, the algorithm may help us out here, since we played both Cardiff and Zebre last time out, and therefore may be spared the same fate again.
One feature of the fixtures last season across all the pools, was that where two URC teams played, the fixture was the reverse of the equivalent league fixture for that season, so it’s fair to say that that is probably a rule. If so, it is good news as it means if we play Lions it will be at home. A single-game trip to Jo’burg in the heat of summer is not on many people’s Santa List.
So I am going to stick my neck out and confidently predict a maximum of one game against a URC team, which won’t be Welsh, with the only potential away trip being Benetton.
There’s not much predicting the rest, though perhaps if we draw Perpignan, the robots may decide we get them at home since we went there last time.
It’s worth reminding that we are not guaranteed a trip to France since one team has to play both French teams at home (and conversely we could go there twice), though the most likely outcome is one home and one away.
In terms of who we’d like to get, Montauban are top of the list since we’ve never played them and they’re also beatable. It’s a pleasant enough town without being on many people’s bucket list. Most of us have never been to the La Defense Arena, so that would be an experience, but the flipside is it might be tough to get a result. Cheetahs in Amsterdam has the makings of a memorable trip and while an adventure to Tbilisi has always been at the back of many of our minds, the political situation there is uncertain and it might be one for happier times.
So I’ll take Newcastle and Perpignan at home, Montauban and Cheetahs away.