This will probably be remembered as Connacht’s Double Bonus Point Season, unless we somehow win the league, in which case it shall undoubtedly be remembered as the How The Feck Did That Happen Season.
Connacht’s fifth double bonus point of the season (not counting the honorary one against Racing) was, like the others, disappointing at the time, but all in all a decent result. We’d have taken their hand off for it pre-game.
The upshot of it all is that despite only winning one third of our games, Connacht are very much still in the hunt, which seems frankly ridiculous. Three wins would almost certainly get us to seventh place, thus avoiding Leinster until the final. Even two wins, with a bonus point or two thrown in, could bizarrely be good enough for eighth, given the challenging fixture lists of some of our rivals.
The good news is that all this means that Connacht fans have something to play for in every game this weekend, which should make it more interesting. Some of them could be close enough as well. Here’s the guide to make sure you don’t accidentally shout for the wrong team and ruin it for everyone else.
Friday 7:35pm Zebre v Edinburgh – If Zebre get ahead of us, it’s all gone horribly wrong, but we need Edinburgh to drop as many points as possible. It’s not completely crucial as Connacht still have Edinburgh at home, so we’ll be ahead of them if we win all three, but a Zebre win will be useful if we’re looking for a miracle on the last day.
Friday 7:35pm Glasgow v Bulls – Doesn’t effect our chances directly, but we would likely play the winner in the QF if it all starts going right so I’d rather not go to Pretoria.
Friday 7:35pm Cardiff v Munster – We’re not catching Munster with their fixture list and we need Cardiff to lose twice. They still have to go to South Africa so all would not be lost if they win, but a home defeat would help enormously.
Saturday 3pm Lions v Connacht – You probably don’t need me to explain this one.
Saturday 3pm Ospreys v Dragons – Unlikely Dragons will pull it off and not that crucial given Ospreys are two points back and have to go to SA, but it would be a nice bonus.
Saturday 5:15pm Stormers v Benetton – Possibly the most important one. We want Benetton to lose twice. Stormers are a point below but have much nicer fixtures so won’t be caught.
Saturday5:15pm Scarlets v Leinster – Leinster should get the job done but if they don’t we have to start worrying about Scarlets’ trip to Africa.
Saturday 7:35pm Ulster v Sharks – This would be a nice finish to the weekend’s fixtures of Connacht win in Joburg, and potentially a crucial lifeline if they don’t. Ulster have a tough run-in so could be caught even if they win, but best they don’t pick up too much momentum.
Enjoy the anxiety and don’t let the hope kill you …